基于GM(1,1)模型的许昌市耕地压力分析与预测

Analysis and Prediction of Cultivated Land Pressure in Xuchang City Based on the GM(1,1) Model

首先根据河南省统计数据分析了2006—2017年许昌市耕地压力指数的变动情况;然后基于GM(1,1)模型对2018—2027年许昌市耕地压力指数进行了有效的预测,并根据国家宏观政策修正了预测结果;最后提出了在努力提高复种指数、加大农业科研投入等提高耕地综合生产能力的基础上适当转移耕地用途以促进许昌市工农业协调发展的建议。

First,according to the statistical data of Henan Province,the change of cultivated land pressure index in Xuchang City during 2006-2017 was analyzed.Then,based on the GM(1,1)model,an effective prediction was made for the cultivated land pressure index of Xuchang City from 2018 to 2027,with revising the prediction results according to the national macro policy.At last,some suggestions were put forward on appropriately transferring the use of cultivated land to promote the coordinated development of industry and agriculture in Xuchang City on the basis of improving the index of multiple cropping and increasing the investment of agricultural scientific research.