合同能源管理项目年节能效益的统计分析

Statistical analysis on annual cost saving of energy performance contracting

对179个合同能源管理(EPC)样本的合同信息进行了统计,分析了注册资本、融资等因素对EPC合同参数的影响。建立了多元线性回归模型和自变量交互作用下的多元线性回归模型,进一步分析了年节能效益的影响因素。结果表明:年节能效益的主要影响因素依次为改造投资、年节能量、节能服务公司(ESCo)的注册资本、是否融资、行业、合同期;财政奖励或税收优惠、用能单位注册资本对年节能效益的影响不显著;行业对年节能效益的影响主要体现在该行业的项目是否融资上。向ESCo提供低成本的资金至关重要,建议转变EPC鼓励政策,从财政奖励或税收优惠向融资环境优化转变。

The effects of registered capital,financing and other factors on the parameters of energy performance contracting(EPC)were studied based on statistical analysis of 179 EPC samples.Further,multiple linear regression models and its corresponding models under the interaction of independent variables were set up to analyze the influencing factors of annual cost saving.The results demonstrate that the major influencing factors of annual cost saving are revamping cost,annual energy saving quantity,registered capital of energy service company(ESCo),financing,industry the sample belongs to and contract period.The financial or tax incentive and the registered capital of energy-consuming companies have no significant impacts on annual cost saving.The effect of industries is mainly behaved in whether this industry is financed or not.It is suggested to change EPC encouragement policy from financial or tax incentive to financing environment improvement because it is important to offer low cost to ESCo.