过度自信、股利需求与现金股利分配——基于行为金融股利理论的分析

Overconfidence, Dividend Demand and Cash Dividend Distribution:An Analysis based on Behavioral Financial Dividend Theory

现金股利在我国发展和运用具有相对特殊性,本文基于管理层过度自信和股利迎合理论,引入管理层过度自信和投资者股利需求等行为因素建立Logit模型和多元线性回归模型,分析行为因素与现金股利分配之间的关系。实证表明我国上市公司现金股利分配具有非理性特征,其中管理层过度自信是上市公司现金股利分配水平较低的重要原因,管理层存在有限理性的股利迎合行为且一定程度上造成现金股利支付倾向和力度的不稳定特征。因此,管理层应不断加深对非理性决策行为的认知,建立良好的决策机制,保证决策过程的适当程序化和规范化,不断提高股利政策的透明度和稳定性。

The development and application of cash dividend in China is relatively special.Based on the theory of management overconfidence and dividend catering,this paper introduces the behavioral factors such as management overconfidence and investor dividend demand to establish Logit model and multiple linear regression model,and analyzes the relationship between behavioral factors and cash dividend distribution.The empirical results show that the cash dividend distribution of listed companies in China has irrational characteristics,in which the overconfidence of the management is an important reason for the low level of cash dividend distribution of listed companies,and the limited rational dividend catering behavior of the management results in the unstable characteristics of the direction and intensity of cash dividend payment to some extent.Therefore,the management should continue to deepen the understanding of irrational decision-making behavior,establish a good decision-making mechanism,ensure the proper procedure and standardization of decision-making process,and constantly improve the transparency and stability of dividend policy.