农业劳动力流动模式变迁对农业生产效率的非线性影响研究——基于面板门限回归模型的实证检验

The Non-linear Influence of the Change of Agricultural Labor Flow Mode on Agricultural Production Efficiency:An Empirical Test based on Panel Threshold Regression Model

为总结农业劳动力流动模式的演变规律,分析城镇化进程中农业劳动力流动模式变迁对农业生产效率的影响,本文以发展经济学农业劳动力城乡迁移理论为指引,利用我国30个省份1991-2016年的相关数据,综合采用Malmquist指数法和门限面板回归模型进行实证检验。研究结果表明:(1)在整个城镇化进程中农业劳动力流动模式将依次经历“大规模化转变”(零星乡-城单向迁移向大规模乡-城单向迁移的转变)和“双向化转变”(大规模乡-城单向迁移向乡-城与城-乡流动模式并举的双向流动模式的转变)两次转变,其中第一次转变对应的城市化率临界区间为31%-40%,而第二次转变对应的城市化率临界区间为55.2%-63.2%。(2)总体而言,农业劳动力流动模式变迁有效地促进了全要素农业生产效率的增长,但与农业劳动力流动模式的第一次转变相比,第二次转变对全要素农业生产效率提升的边际促进作用相对更弱;进一步分析发现,对规模效率捕获能力的下滑是导致上述差异的结构性根源,而我国农地产权制度不完善、土地产权交易市场体系不健全、农地的家庭之间流转以及家庭向新型农业经营主体的集中过程受阻、生产经营规模无法实现同步扩张,农业生产系统对规模效率的捕获能力持续下滑等是导致上述差异的内在根源。根据农业劳动力流动模式的阶段特征,应实行差异化的农业技术创新政策和农地流转干预模式。

In order to summarize the evolution law of agricultural labor flow pattern and analyze the impact of the change of agricultural labor flow pattern on agricultural production efficiency in the process of urbanization,this paper,guided by the theory of rural-urban migration of agricultural labor in development economics,uses the relevant data of 30 provinces in China from 1991 to 2016,and comprehensively uses Malmquist index method and threshold panel regression model to test it.The results show that:(1)in the whole process of urbanization,the mode of agricultural labor flow will undergo two changes,one is“large-scale transformation”(the transition from one-way migration of scattered towns to one-way migration of large-scale towns)and the other is“two-way transformation”(the transformation from large-scale one-way rural-urban migration to two-way rural-urban and urban-rural mobility),and the critical range of urbanization rate corresponding to the first transformation is 31%-40%,while that corresponding to the second transformation is 55.2%-63.2%.(2)on the whole,the change of agricultural labor flow pattern has effectively promoted the growth of all factor agricultural production efficiency,but compared with the first change of agricultural labor flow pattern,the second change has a weaker marginal role in promoting all factor agricultural production efficiency;through further analysis,it is found that the decline of the capture ability of scale efficiency is the structural root of the above differences,however,the factors,such as China′s farmland property rights system is not perfect,the land property rights trading market system is not perfect,the transfer of farmland between families and the centralization process of families to the new agricultural operation subject are blocked,the scale of production and operation cannot achieve synchronous expansion,and the continuous decline of agricultural production system′s ability to capture scale efficiency,are the internal cause of the above differences.According to the stage characteristics of agricultural labor flow mode,we should implement differentiated agricultural technology innovation policy and agricultural land transfer intervention mode.