试论特朗普政府对委内瑞拉的极限施压政策

On Trump’s Maximum Pressure on Venezuela

特朗普政府上台后,对委内瑞拉马杜罗政权实施了极限施压政策。其特征包括:以国家和个人层面的极限经济施压为核心,以极限政治渗透和外交围堵为辅助,以极限参与政变和有限军事威胁为催化剂等。尽管这种政策有着后者经济衰败并高度依赖美国、政治与社会溃烂且反对党力量强大以及在国内外得到较多支持等有利条件,但迄今为止尚未取得成功。原因在于,特朗普政府对于使用武力进攻委内瑞拉色厉内荏;委内瑞拉反对派相对于马杜罗更加缺乏带领国家走出治理困境的能力,政治手腕也不够成熟;美国的极限施压没有足够道义支持,马杜罗仍然能够得到一定国际支援。在影响方面,委内瑞拉固然会因为特朗普政府施压而损失惨重,人道主义灾难进一步加剧,然而美国同样面临着极限施压的困境,它在拉美地区的影响力及国际形象将进一步受损。

The Trump administration has imposed extreme pressure on Madura’s government since Trump took office.The primary pressure includes economic sanctions against the country and individuals as well.Other measures include political penetration and diplomatic containment.The catalyst of the pressure is participation in coups and limited military threats.However,Trump’s policy has not achieved its goal.The reason are as follows.The Trump administration has not made up its mind to use force to attack Venezuela;the Venezuela opposition is less able to lead the country out of the trouble than Madura;the opposition’s political skill is immature;the US extreme pressure policy has not earned any moral support;and Madura is still able to get some international support.Although Venezuela has suffered a lot due to Trump administration’s sanctions,the US is also faced with the predicament of extreme pressure policy.Its influence on Latin-America and its international image will further decline.