老龄化、地形差异与农户种植决策

Aging, Topography and Peasant Households’ Planting Decisions

本文根据中国社会科学院国情调研村庄调查项目中的农户调查数据,分析老年农户与年轻农户在不同地形上的种植决策差异,研究土地质量差异性与劳动力质量差异性对农户种植决策的影响,并探讨农业人口老龄化对我国未来农业生产可能产生的影响。研究表明,老年农户与年轻农户在不同地形上的粮食作物与经济作物种植强度存在差异,年轻农户与老年农户的数量变化、非农就业情况均对其在不同地形上的种植决策有着显著影响。年轻农户通过提高作物种植强度来实现利润最大化,老年农户则通过减少粮食作物种植、增加经济作物复种来增加家庭总收入。结论还显示,纯农老年农户从事农业生产的强度反而要高于兼业年轻农户。

Using peasant household survey data from CASS,this essay analyzes the different planting decisions made by young and elder peasant households with diverse topography.We also study the influence of land quality and labor force on the peasant households’planting decisions as well as reveal the possible impacts of aging on agriculture in the future.The results unveil the following findings.In the first place,the young and the elder peasant households prefer different crops and planting density on different topography.Furthermore,the number and the employment of non-farm workers of peasant households exert significant effect on their decisions.The young peasant households maximize their profit by increasing planting density,while the elders choose to plant less crops and take advantage of economic crops to raise household income.Additionally,the results also show that the full-time elder peasant households are more productive than those parttime younger ones.