基于系统动力学的应急物资动员潜力评估

An evaluation of emergency materials mobilization potential based on system dynamics

应急物资动员潜力可以为我国应对突发事件应急物资保障提供重要基础.本文以原材料转化后的应急物资最终产品测度应急物资动员潜力,通过分析构成应急物资动员潜力的四个子模块内部转化形成应急物资最终产品的反馈关系,运用系统动力学建立了应急物资动员潜力评估模型.以我国石油产业链为实际背景,以成品油动员潜力为例,运用"情景-应对"的思想从总量、某一时点以及某个时间段等多个角度对成品油动员潜力进行了定量评估.研究发现:当需求量较低时,原油或者成品油储备对成品油动员潜力贡献最大,随着需求量逐渐增加,企业超常生产能力对成品油动员潜力的贡献逐渐增大.此外,成品油实际产能、原油储备量或成品油储备量以及原油转化系数这四个影响因素对成品油动员潜力的影响最大,应重点提高应急物资实际产能、原材料或应急物资最终产品储备量以及应急物资生产效率.

The mobilization potential of emergency materials plays an important role for the response to emergency materials under emergencies in China.This paper measures the emergency materials mobilization potential by the final product of the emergency materials after the conversion of raw materials,and establishes the emergency materials mobilization potential evaluation model using system dynamics through analyzing the internal feedback relationship of each sub-module that constitutes the emergency materials mobilization potential.Taking China's petroleum industry chain as the actual background,and the mobilization potential of refined oil as an example,using the idea of"scenario-response",this paper expands the idea of assessing the state value of mobilization potential,quantitatively assesses mobilization potential of refined oil from the aspects of total amount,a certain time point and a certain period of time.The results show that when the demand is at a low level,the reserves of crude oil and refined oil have the greatest contribution to the refined oil mobilization potential.With the increase of demand,the contribution of the company's supernormal production is gradually increasing.In addition,the four factors of the actual production capacity of emergency materials,the amount of crude oil or refined oil reserves and crude oil conversion coefficient have the greatest impact on the refined oil mobilization potential,so it should focus on improving the actual production capacity of emergency materials,the amount of raw materials or final product reserves and the productive efficiency of emergency materials.