基于合成控制法的新型产业用地供给对城市GDP增速的影响研究——以深圳市为例

The Impact of the Transfer of New-type Industrial Land on Urban GDP Growth Rate based on Synthetic Control Method——A Case Study of Shenzhen

深圳自2013年开始大量供给新型产业用地,以促进产业转型升级,进而推动经济可持续发展,目前鲜有此类用地供给对城市经济影响的实证研究。本文采用44个城市2007-2017年的面板数据,使用合成控制法分析新型产业用地供给对深圳GDP增速的影响效果。研究发现,由于供给新型产业用地,2014-2017年深圳GDP增速分别提升0.5、0.9、1.4、1.55个百分点。对于土地资源匮乏型城市或地区,应多出台此类能提高土地利用效率,引导产业发展的用地政策,以促进经济发展。

Since 2013,Shenzhen has been supplying large quantities of new-type industrial land to promote industrial transformation,thus promoting sustainable economic development.At present,there are few empirical studies on the impact of such land supply on urban economy.This paper used panel data of 44 cities from 2007 to 2017 to analyze the impact of new-type industrial land on Shenzhen’s GDP growth by using synthetic control method.The study found that,due to the supply of new-type industrial land,the GDP growth rate of Shenzhen increased by 0.5%,0.9%,1.4%and 1.55%from 2007 to 2017,respectively.For cities or regions with scarce land resources,more land policies should be introduced to improve land use efficiency and guide industrial development in order to promote economic development.