双边政治关系与我国石油进口安全——基于PPML模型的经验分析

Bilateral Political Relations and China’s Oil Import Security:An Empirical Analysis Based on PPML Model

能源外交是保障我国能源安全的重要措施之一。就能源外交所带来的双边政治关系改善是否有效提升了我国石油贸易安全问题,采用1993-2016年37个国家层面的面板数据,基于PPML模型进行了经验检验,并详细探讨了其阶段性特征和国家结构效应。研究表明,双边政治关系会显著影响我国石油进口的深度与广度,即进口规模和拓展进口来源的可能性,但对进口石油价格的影响并不明显;双边政治关系的改善有利于保障我国石油进口供应安全;我国石油进口价格还受到其供求基本面的影响。为此,我国应当进一步加强能源外交,充分发挥"一带一路"倡议的积极作用,同时降低对特定石油进口来源国的过度依赖,综合运用外交、经济等其他手段保障能源安全。

Energy diplomacy is one of the important measures to ensure China’s energy security.As for the question that whether the improvement of bilateral political relations brought about by energy diplomacy has effectively promoted China’s petroleum trade security, this paper adopts the panel data from 37 countries during the period of 1993-2016 to conduct an empirical test based on the PPML method. It also explores in detail its periodical characteristics and state structural effects. The findings show that the bilateral political relations would significantly affect the depth and breadth of China’s oil imports, that is, the scale of imports and the possibility of expanding the source of imports, but the impact on the price of imported oil is not obvious. The improvement of bilateral political relations is conducive to safeguarding China’s oil imports security, while China’s oil import prices are also affected by the fundamentals of its supply and demand. To this end, China should further strengthen its energy diplomacy, give full play to the positive role of the Belt and Road Initiative, while at the same time reduce excessive dependence on specific oil importing countries, and comprehensively use diplomatic, economic and other means to ensure energy security.