经济、民生、政策对香港居民国家认同的影响——基于回归模型的分析

The Impact of Economy,People’s Livelihood and Policy on Hong Kong Residents’ National Identity-Based on an Analysis of Regression Model

影响香港居民国家认同的因素来自多方面,其中,经济、民生、政策的影响不容忽视。我们通过选取1997年12月至2016年6月的数据,使用回归模型实证分析了经济、民生、政策因素对香港居民国家认同的影响,得出的结论是:贸易发展、房地产价格与香港居民国家认同呈现正相关;本地生产总值变动率、通货膨胀率、失业率与香港居民国家认同呈现负相关;有些回归结果与我们传统认识相符,有些则与之相背离。个中影响机理可从香港经济增长与民生改善滞后之间的矛盾、中央惠港政策的双面效应找到答案。

The factors that affect Hong Kongresidents’ national identity are multifaceted. Among them,the impact of economy,people’s livelihood and policy should not be ignored. We selected datas from December 1997 to June 2016,and use the regression model to analyze the influence factors of economy,people’s livelihood and policy on Hong Kong residents’ national identity. The conclusions are as following: trade development and real estate prices are positively correlated with Hong Kong residents’ national identity;the change rate of GDP,inflation rate and unemployment rate are negatively correlated with Hong Kong residents’ national identity. Some of the regression results are consistent with our traditional understanding,while others deviate from it. The impact mechanism can be found from the contradiction between the growth of Hong Kong economy and the improvement of people’s livelihood and the double-sided effect of the policy of central government.