情景分析法在作战方案评估中的应用研究

Research on the Application of Scenario Analysis in Operational Plan Evaluation

分析了情景分析法的概念、特点,以及采用归纳法和演绎法开展情景分析的逻辑步骤。在此基础上,针对作战方案评估面临的主要问题,将情景分析法应用于未来作战情景的规划与构想,提出了"顶层设计、先推后仿、反复迭代"的作战实验方法。该方法在已有成果基础上,将作战情景规划、作战概念设计和仿真实验分析有机结合起来,既有利于在战略层面为作战方案评估确定边界、明确范围,从战略视角审视作战方案的合理性,也有利于在作战层面提炼制胜机理、识别作战风险、实现战法创新。

This paper analyzes the concept and characteristics of scenario analysis and the logical steps of scenario analysis taking inductive method and deduction method. Aiming at the main problems of operational plan evaluation,an operational experiment method based on "Top-level Design,First Wargame and Simulation,and Repeated Iteration"is proposed to apply scenario analysis to the planning and conceiving of future operational scenario. Based on the existing research achievements,combining the method with operational scenario planning,concept of operations( CONOPS) design and simulation experiment analysis,and it is advantageous to define the boundary and scope for the operational plan evaluation at the strategic level,to examine the rationality of the operational plan from strategic perspective,and to generalize the winning mechanism,identify the operational risk and achieve tactics innovation at the operational level.