基于改进灰色理论的线路更换最优时间

Study on the Optimal Replacement Time of Transmission Line on the Basis of Improved Grey Theory

架空输电线路作为输送电能的主要媒介,通过对线路进行精细化运行与管理,可使线路发挥出最经济的效益,为电力企业节约全寿命周期成本。研究提出了一种对输电线路的运行成本进行中长期预测改进灰色理论方法,并采用后验差法来验证该模型的准确性;利用动态模式下年均费用的计算模型对输电线路计算年均费用最小值,从而确定线路更换最优时间。算例表明,利用改进灰色理论方法预测线路运行费用,模型具有可行性,且预测结果准确,动态模式下年均费用计算经济寿命的结果在合理范围内,为电力线路管理部门对线路的更换决策提供参考。

As the main medium for transporting electric energy,the transmission line carries out detailed operation and management of line,so that line can exert the most economical benefits and save the whole life cycle cost for the power enterprise.A method of improving the grey theory is proposed to predict the running cost of the transmission line in the medium and long term,and the posterior difference method is used to verify the accuracy of the model.Then use the calculation model of the annual average cost in dynamic mode to calculate the minimum annual cost of the transmission line,so as to determine the optimal time for line replacement.The example shows that the article uses the improved grey theory method to predict the line running cost,and the prediction result is accurate.In the dynamic mode,the annual average cost calculation results in the economic life is very small,which provides a reference for the power line management department to replace the line.