基于灰色预测的甘南农牧民收入趋势分析

Trend Analysis of Incomes of Farmers and Herdsmen in Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture Based on Grey Prediction

首先通过假设检验的思想对甘南州的农牧民人均收入与甘肃省农民人均收入进行了对比分析,得出二者存在显著性差异,而且后者明显高于前者。其次,利用灰色预测模型,对甘南州农牧民人均收入做了趋势预测,分析得出2012—2017年这6年间甘肃省的农民人均收入水平远远高于甘南州的农牧民人均收入。同时,根据预测结果可知到2019年年底,甘肃省农民人均收入有望突破万元大关,而甘南州的农牧民人均收入则到2020年才能突破一万元大关。

First of all,the theory of hypothesis testing was used to compare and analyze the per capita income of farmers and herdsmen in Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture and the per capita income of farmers in Gansu Province,and the results show that the both have significant difference and the latter is obviously higher than the former.Secondly,the grey prediction model was applied to conduct trend analysis on the per capita income of farmers and herdsmen in Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture,and it shows the per capita income of farmers in Gansu Province was much higher than that of farmers and herdsmen in Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture during 2012—2017,and according to the results of prediction,the per capita income of farmers in Gansu Province is expected to exceed 10000 yuan by the end of 2019,while the per capita income of farmers and herdsmen in Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture will catch up only until 2020.