特朗普政府导弹防御战略和政策——基于美国2019年版《导弹防御评估》报告的分析

The Trump Administration’s Missile Defense Strategy and Policy:An Analysis Based on the 2019 Missile Defense Review

冷战结束后,美国致力于构筑一个由陆基、海基和太空基系统等不同拦截方式与本土防御、地区防御和点防御等不同防御面相结合而组成的一体化分层导弹防御结构。特朗普就任后,在延续前任的导弹防御政策框架的基础上,对美国导弹防御的范围和目标做了调整,以应对敌人和主要对手构成的导弹威胁。特朗普政府的导弹防御战略和政策将加剧美国退出《中导条约》后陷入的美俄之间敌对的紧张关系,以及中美之间因贸易、台湾、南海等问题而日趋紧张的关系,削弱甚至抵消中等核国家和拥有弹道导弹国家的威慑和实战能力,刺激这些国家加强应对措施的研究,从而引发进攻性武器与防御性武器之间的军备竞赛。尽管面临严峻的技术和财政方面的挑战,特朗普政府仍将大力推进其导弹防御战略和政策的实施。

Since the end of the Cold War,the U.S.has been devoted to building an integrated,layered ballistic missile defense system consisting of ground-based,sea-launched and space-based missile defenses,in combination with national,regional,and point missile defense scopes.After he took office,President Donald Trump made adjustments to the scope and goals of the American missile defenses as well as continuing parts of his predecessors'missile defense policy framework in order to counter missile threats posed by America's potential adversaries.The Trump administration's missile defense strategy and policy will make worse already hostile U.S.-Russian relations aggravated by the U.S.withdrawal from the INF Treaty,and increased Sino-U.S.tensions.China-U.S.bilateral relations have been strained by trade,Taiwan,and the South China Sea.The increased tensions have weakened and even neutralized deterrence power and operational capabilities of middle-nuclear countries and those with ballistic missiles and stimulated them to find counter measures,thus initiating an arms race between offensive and defensive weapons.Despite facing severe technological and financial hurdles,the Trump administration will vigorously carry out its missile defense strategy and policy.