塔利班重返阿富汗政治生活的目标及前景

The Return of Taliban to Afghan Politics:Objectives and Prospects

2019年9月8日,美国与塔利班的谈判破裂。通过对这一事件的分析,本文认为:第一,信息不对称博弈下的谈判策略造成了美“塔”谈判困局;第二,美“塔”谈判停摆表明,阿富汗塔利班不仅是简单地回归阿富汗政治生活,而是要实现“阿富汗伊斯兰酋长国复国”的目标;第三,“多哈协议”及其达成前后的博弈透露塔利班“复国”后的内政主张;第四,“多哈协议”所解释的塔利班“复国方略”中的“对外战略”比其内政主张有较大的灵活性;第五,影响塔利班达成“复国”目标的主要因素很复杂,是由阿富汗政府现状、美国的战略安排以及塔利班后期的策略选择所共同决定的。本文的最终结论是,塔利班“复国阿富汗伊斯兰酋长国”的目标很难实现,阿富汗和平进程依然有很长的道路要走。

On September 8,2019,the negotiation between the US and the Taliban broke down.This article offers an analysis of the reasons for this incident,and finds that:(1)The negotiation strategy under the information asymmetry game caused the dilemma of the American-Taliban negotiation;(2)The suspension of talks between the US and the Taliban illustrates that the Afghan Taliban not simply has made a return to Afghan politics,but are aiming for the objective of restoring the Islamic State of Afghanistan;(3)the“Doha Agreement”and the struggle that emerged both before and after its conclusion is a further sign of the Taliban’s domestic political agenda following its return;(4)The“foreign strategy”of the Taliban’s“rejuvenation strategy”,as interpreted in the“Doha Agreement”,is more flexible than its domestic claims;(5)The main factors affecting the Taliban’s success in achieving its objective of“returning”are complex,and were ultimately the combination of the current state of Afghan politics,America’s strategic arrangements and the Taliban’s strategic choices.The article holds a final conclusion arguing that it will be very difficult for the Taliban to achieve its objective of restoring the Islamic State of Afghanistan,and that there is still a long way to go in terms of the Afghan peace process.