中哈德3国化肥施用生态经济合理性动态比较与启示

Comparisons and revelation of eco-economic rationality of fertilizer use in three countries of CHN-KAZ-GER

基于环境安全阈值模型,建立化肥施用生态经济合理性评价方法,利用2002~2016年一带一路沿线中国、哈萨克斯坦和德国的农用化肥施用时间序列数据,对其化肥施用特点、环境安全阈值及施用生态经济合理性进行对比研究,为中国制定化肥施用政策和农业发展战略、加强国际合作提供参考。研究结果显示:①从2002年到2016年,中国化肥施用总量和施用强度一直增加至顶峰,近两年出现下降趋势;哈萨克斯坦则表现为快速大幅波动增长的变化,但消费总量和施用强度太小;德国的化肥施用总量和强度呈现总体平稳、微幅波动、稍有下降的趋势。15年来中哈德化肥施用强度分别从278.0、1.62、272.2 kg/hm^2变为332.5、7.47、265.2 kg/hm^2,分别增加了20%、360%、-2.6%;氮(N)、磷(P2O5)、钾(K2O)比例分别从1∶0.42∶0.31、1∶0.85∶0.02、1∶0.18∶0.27调整到1∶0.51∶0.45、1∶0.36∶0.03、1∶0.14∶0.26。目前中国氮磷钾化肥施用结构比较合理,哈萨克斯坦比例严重失调,德国磷钾比例偏低。②近15年来中哈德氮磷钾总化肥施用环境安全阈值分别在227~272、96~120、323~373 kg/hm^2范围变动;中国总化肥施用强度已经超过了环境安全阈值和作物需要水平,粮食产量较德国为低,总化肥施用为生态经济合理性2级水平,近些年略有改善,其中氮、磷、钾分别为3级(不合理)、2级(较合理)、1级(合理)水平;哈萨克斯坦施肥严重不足,粮食产量水平最低,氮、磷、钾施用均为生态经济合理性4级水平(很不合理);德国的总化肥施用为生态经济合理性2级水平,粮食产量最高,其氮肥施用适量,接近环境安全阈值,为生态经济合理性1级水平。总之,中国化肥减量增效势在必行,可借鉴德国的经验,大力发展生态农业,哈萨克斯坦则需增加施肥强度和改善施肥结构,中国与哈萨克斯坦加强农业国际合作有着广阔前景。

Based on the model of Fertilization Environmental Safety Threshold and data from 2002 ~ 2016,this paper established the method of assessing rational use of Nitrogen(N),Phosphate(P2 O5)and Potash(K2 O)fertilizers(NPK)to measure and analyze the features,environmental safety thresholds and ecological rationalities of NPK fertilizer consumption in three countries of China,Kazakhstan and Germany under the"the belt and road initiatives"for helping them to make right polices of fertilizers consumption and agricultural development strategies,and improve international cooperation. The results showed that the fertilizer consumption of China went up to the top and started to decline,Kazakhstan was increasing,and Germany slightly decreasing with fluctuation from 2002 to 2016,respectively;the Fertilization Intensity of three countries changed from 278.0,1.62,272.2 kg/hm^2 in 2002 to 332.5,7.47,265.2 kg/hm^2 in 2016 by the growth of 20%,360%,-2.6%,respectively;the proportion of N to P to K changed from 1∶0.42∶0.31,1∶0.85∶0.02,1 ∶ 0.18 ∶ 0.27 in 2002 to 1 ∶ 0.51 ∶ 0.45,1 ∶ 0.36:0.03,1 ∶ 0.14 ∶ 0.26 in 2016,respectively;the Fertilization Environmental Safety Threshold for each country was 227 ~ 272,96 ~ 120,323 ~ 373 kg/hm^2 during the period of 2002 to 2016,respectively. In terms of ecological rationality of NPK fertilizer consumption,China was on the second level(relative rational),Kazakhstan the fourth level(irrational),and Germany the first level(rational) for N fertilizer use.This paper which sets up a new method to evaluate ecological rationality of fertilizer consumption would help three countries under"the belt and road initiatives"improve their fertilizer use. As for China,it is urgently to reduce the amount of fertilizers use to the proper level for the environmental safety by learning from Germany’s experiences of eco-agricultural industrial development,and there are prospective markets for China to strengthen the international agriculture co-operations with Kazakhstan.