区域研发投入的循环累积效应估计:2000—2016年

Estimation on the Circular Cumulative Effects of China’s Regional R&D Inputs:2000—2016

本文在以研发为基础的新经济增长理论和循环累积因果关系理论基础上,构建了一个估计研发投入循环累积效应的分析框架,并基于省级数据估计了2000—2016年中国区域研发投入的循环累积效应。研究表明,研发投入循环累积效应的估计受知识生产函数形式和知识产出衡量指标的影响,相比于熊彼特知识生产函数,这期间中国真实经济更符合琼斯知识生产函数,以专利授权量衡量知识产出比使用新产品销售收入衡量知识产出所估计的结果更为稳定;这期间中国研发投入的循环累积效应总体上不断增强,区域间的差异主要形成于2010年以前,现阶段已趋于稳定。最后,在研发资源配置和区域创新战略上提出了相应对策建议。

This paper constructs a theoretical framework to estimate the circular cumulative effects(CCE)of R&D inputs on the R&D-based New Economic Growth(NEG)Theory and Circular Cumulative Causation(CCC)Theory,and empirically calculates the CCE of China's regional R&D inputs from 2000 to 2016 by using provincial data.The results show that estimating CCE of R&D inputs is affected by the form of Knowledge Production Function(KPF)and the measure indictors of knowledge outputs,China's real economy more fit Jones's KPF than Schumpeterian KPF,and the CCE of R&D inputs estimated by using patents granted data more stable than new products sales data;the CCE of R&D inputs was on the whole increasing during this time,and its inter-regional difference mainly formed before 2010,now is toward stable.Finally,this paper puts forward corresponding suggestions for R&D resources allocation and regional innovation policy.