基于关键时间窗的泄漏事故情景构建方法研究

Research on Construction Method of Leakage Accident Scenario Based on Key Time Windows

针对危险性气体泄漏事故致因因素和事故演化规律难以确定的问题,采用时间窗与情景构建相结合的方法确定情景要素、情景演变规律以及相关要素之间的逻辑和时间关系,建立了基于两类关键时间窗的泄漏事故情景构建方法。第一类关键时间窗基于事件树方法实现了对事故发生可能性的分析;第二类关键时间窗着眼于事发后的前期处置,实现了对事故发展可能路径的分析。以某液化气泄漏爆炸事故为例,利用时间窗情景构建模型构建泄漏事故情景,所构建的情景与第二类时间窗泄漏事故情景链中有一条该事故基本吻合,表明基于关键时间窗的事故情景链能够反映事故发生发展的客观可能性,对事故的全过程防范具有重要的借鉴意义。

Aiming at the problem of the cause of dangerous gas leakage accident and the evolution law of accident,the combination of time window and scenario construction is used to determine scene elements,evolution law of the scene and logical and temporal relationship between related elements and a method for constructing a leak accident scenario based on critical time window was established.The first type of critical time window is based on the event tree method to analyze the possibility of accidents and the second type of critical time window focuses on the pre-disposal after the incident,to realize the analysis of the possible path of accident development.Taking a liquefied gas leakage explosion accident as an example,the time window scenario is used to construct the model to construct the leakage accident scenario.The constructed scenario is basically consistent with the second type of time window leakage accident scenario chain,indicating that the accident scenario chain of key time windows can reflect the objective possibility of accident occurrence and development,and it has important reference significance for the whole process prevention of accidents.