化工装置多级多米诺效应定量风险评价模型的建立及应用

Establishment and Application of Multi-stage Domino Effect Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for Chemical Plant

化工装置的多级多米诺效应事故可造成比初始事故、一级多米诺效应事故更加严重的灾难性后果,因此对化工装置多级多米诺效应的风险进行科学的评价迫在眉睫。在文献调研的基础上,给出了二级多米诺效应的风险评价模型并用于实例分析,结果表明考虑二级多米诺效应后风险增大且不可忽略,同时证明了模型的科学性、有效性与实用性。科学合理的评价结果可为企业选址及防灾减灾提供理论依据,具有十分重要的现实意义。

Multi-stage domino effect accident of chemical plant can cause disastrous consequences that is more serious than the initial accident,so scientific assessment of multi-stage domino effect of chemical plant is imminent.On the basis of literature research,this paper presents a risk assessment model of multi-stage domino effect and also it is applied in the case analysis.The result show that the risk increases and should not be neglected after considering secondary domino effect,which has proved the scientific,validity and practicability of the model.Scientific and reasonable assessment results can provide theoretical basis for enterprise location selection and disaster prevention and mitigation,which has very important practical significance.