中国农业产业发展战略前瞻

Prospects for the Development Strategy of China’s Agricultural Industry

[目的/意义]今明两年是全面建成小康社会的决胜期,必须坚决守好“三农”这个战略后院,有必要重新审视中国农业的真实贡献,客观评价中国农业产业的政策选择,科学研判未来食物安全形势。[方法/过程]基于中国动态可计算一般均衡模型、中国农业产业模型和统计数据进行实证分析。[结果/结论]从产业链的视角,农业食物系统增加值占全国GDP的比重达到23.3%,就业人口比重达到36.7%;为实现效率和公平之间的均衡,中国农业产业政策实际上以牺牲竞争力换取农民收入;中国可以守住“口粮绝对安全,谷物基本自给”的底线要求。

[Purpose/significance]These two years will be a crucial period for completing the building of a well-off society.It is necessary to re-examine the true contribution of China’s agriculture,objectively evaluate the policy choices of China’s agricultural industry,and scientifically judge the future food safety situation.[Method/process]This empirical analysis is based on China Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model,China Ag-ricultural Sector Model and statistical data.[Result/conclusion]From the perspective of the industrial chain,the added value of the agri-food system accounts for 23.3%of the national GDP,and the proportion of the employee reaches 36.7%.In order to achieve a balance between ef ficiency and fairness,China’s agricultural industrial policy actually exchanges farmers’income with competitiveness;China can achieve the bottom line requirement of“basic self-suf ficiency of cereal grains and absolute food security”.