食管癌发病风险评估模型的研究进展

Progress in Research of High Risk Assessment Models for Esophageal Cancer

该研究通过Pubmed、Embase、CNKI、万方数据平台进行文献查阅,总结国内外食管癌发病风险评估模型的研究进展。结果发现,国内外食管癌发病风险预测模型的类型差异较大,西方人群以食管腺癌为主,而亚洲地区人群以食管鳞癌为主。此外,现有食管癌预测模型的构建多基于病例对照研究设计,预测变量以非遗传性危险因素居多。模型验证方式多采用内部验证,模型的外推性有待在外部人群进行验证。该文从食管癌发病风险预测模型建立、验证及应用方面进行综述,以期为人群食管癌防控策略的制定提供依据。

The latest research progress of esophageal cancer prediction models were searched from databases Pubmed,Embase,CNKI and Waiifang.There were some differences in types of risk prediction models for esophageal cancer between Western population and Asian population,in which the esophageal adenocarcinoma and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma were dominant,respectively.Most of the existing prediction models were developed based on case-control studies and non-genetic predictors.The effectiveness of the models were mainly tested by internal validation,and need to be verified among external population.This article reviews the latest research progress of prediction models for esophageal cancer in terms of modeling approach as well as validation and application,to provide evidence for the prevention and control strategies of esophageal cancer.