融合机理与数据的灰箱系统建模方法研究

The Grey-box based Modeling Approach Research integrating Fusion Mechanism and Data

建模和仿真的方法逐渐已经可以解决复杂系统问题。对于符合牛顿物理定律的工程系统,通常采用机理建模的方式建立白箱模型,而对于系统内部结构和特性不明确时采用黑箱建模的方式,用基于数据和统计的建模方法来解决问题。讨论了白箱和黑箱建模方法存在的缺陷;提出一种融合机理和数据的灰箱建模方法,以大气污染物扩散建模为例,从白箱到灰箱和从黑箱到灰箱两个角度阐述如何解决实际问题。通过案例论证了灰箱建模方法的可行性和有效性,并展望未来工作。

With the deep understanding of world, modeling and simulation have been used to solve the problems of complex systems. The simulation models are used to model the engineering systems which follow newton laws. The modeling approach is called white-box modeling, while the black-box modeling is used to model the systems of which the internal structure and characteristics are not clear. The black-box modeling is based on statistics and data modeling. This paper discusses the deficiencies of the white-box and black-box modeling approaches first. The Grey-box based modeling approach integrating both fusion mechanism and data model is proposed. In order to explain the idea of Grey-box based modeling, the atmosphere dispersion modeling is studied in the cases. The feasibility and effectiveness of the grey box modeling method are demonstrated through a case study and the future work is discussed.