基于生态足迹的塔里木河流域可持续发展研究

Sustainable development of Tarim River Basin based on ecological footprint

为缓解我国干旱区经济生态转型的紧迫压力,对干旱区内陆河流域进行可持续发展评价迫在眉睫。采用生态足迹模型以及三项可持续发展能力评价指标,通过测定塔里木河流域1950-2015年承载力和生态足迹,评价其可持续性。结果表明:在历经近70 a的变化环境尤其是人类活动的高强度影响下,65 a间全流域生态足迹增大近87倍,随着时间的推移,在经历不同的发展阶段后,生态负荷逐渐增加,流域处于不可持续的赤字状态;可持续发展能力评价指标变化表明,塔里木河流域正逐渐偏离可持续性。研究成果有针对性的讨论了塔里木河流域的发展模式,并提出走降低经济发展速度但仍保持增长、减缓资源消耗与环境污染、使环境压力趋于回落发展等建议,以促进流域经济可持续发展。

To alleviate the pressing pressure of economic and ecological transformation in arid areas of China,it is urgent to study the sustainable development of inland river basins in arid areas.Using the ecological footprint model and three sustainable development capacity evaluation indicators,the carrying capacity and ecological footprint of Tarim River Basin from 1950 to 2015 were measured to evaluate its sustainability.After nearly 70 years of changing environment,especially the strong influence of human activities,the ecological footprint of the whole basin increased by nearly 87 times in 65 years.With the passage of time,after going through different stages of development,the ecological load gradually increased,and the basin was in an unsustainable deficit state.It shows that the Tarim River Basin is gradually deviating from sustainability.The development model of Tarim River Basin is discussed,and some suggestions are put forward to promote the sustainable development of Tarim River Basin economy by reducing the speed of economic development but maintaining growth,slowing down the consumption of resources and environmental pollution,and making the environmental pressure tend to decline.