关联产品视角下的中国油料对外依存度研究

The dependence of Chinese oilseeds on foreign trade based on the perspective of associated products

油料对外依存度是指一国油料生产和消费依赖国际贸易取得产销平衡的程度,是一个相对指标,在不同的公式下,测算结果差异较大,因此,如何构建准确的测算指标成为关键。本文详细总结了目前较为普遍的几种测算油料对外依存度的算法,并给出了各自的适用性与优缺点。以进口为重点,采用折算法具体测算了油料整体及分品种油料的进口依存度。研究表明:对油料整体和分品种油料而言,以进口原料为主的贸易格局决定了折算后进口依存度与折算前进口依存度的差值呈急剧缩小态势。2017年,油料进口依存度为71%。相较于其他油料,大豆在油料进口依存度中占有绝对主导地位,同期进口依存度达89.36%。基于关联产品视角,未来可以进一步完善油料进口利弊评判、油料进口替代以及油料安全供给水平评估方面的研究。

The dependence of oilseeds on foreign trade refers to the extent to which oilseeds production and consumption in a country depend on international trade to obtain a balance between production and sales.It is a relative indicator.Under different formulas,the calculation results are quite different.Therefore,how to construct accurate measurement indicators becomes the key.In this paper,several algorithms for measuring the dependence of oilseeds on foreign trade are summarized in detail,and their applicability,advantages and disadvantages are given.Focusing on imports,the import dependence of oilseeds and the whole oilseeds are measured by a folding algorithm.The research shows that for the oilseeds and oilseeds products as a whole,the trade pattern based on imported raw materials determines that the difference between the import dependence and the import dependence before conversion is sharply reduced.In 2017,the dependence on oilseeds imports was 71%.Compared with other oilseeds,soybeans have an absolute dominant position in the dependence of oilseeds imports,and the import dependence has reached 89.36%in the same period.Based on the perspective of associated products,in the future,we can further improve the research on the judgement of advantages and disadvantages of oilseeds import,oilseeds import substitution and the assessment oilseeds supply safety.