不同经济发展阶段产业结构的合理性判断——基于各国发展经验的视角

Rational Judgment of Industrial Structure in Different Stages of Economic Development ——Based on the Perspective of Different National Development Experience

2018年,我国三次产业增加值占GDP的比重分别为7.2%、40.7%和52.2%,这样的产业结构是否与我国当前发展阶段相吻合,是否有利于高质量发展?要回答这些问题,就必须找到不同经济发展阶段产业结构合理性的标准加以对照,也才能够发现当前我国产业结构存在的问题和产业结构调整的方向。以往研究主要关注了要素在产业间的配置,却并未重视不同经济发展阶段的产业结构标准。为此,本文从库兹涅茨和钱纳里等关于不同经济发展阶段各国产业结构演进的历史经验,以及跨越和陷入"中等收入陷阱"典型国家产业结构演进的正反两方面规律,总结了发展中国家产业结构演进的阶段标准,即工业化末期工业占比和服务业占比分别约为40%和50%。我国的产业结构演进基本符合产业演进规律,但当前工业占比和服务业占比已经基本达到其他国家工业化完成时的水平,表现为一定程度的过早去工业化和服务业化苗头。因此,未来的产业结构调整不再是主要追求第三次产业量的扩张,而是加快发展实体经济,促进三次产业整体质量提升。

In 2018,the added value of China's three industries accounted for 7.2%,40.7%,and 52.2% of GDP respectively.Is this industrial structure consistent with China's current development stage,and is it conducive to high-quality development?Previous studies have focused on the allocation of factors between industries,but have not paid attention to the industrial structure standards at different stages of economic development.To this end,this paper summarizes the historical experiences of the industrial structure evolution of different countries at different stages o£economic development,such as described by Kuznets and Channer,and the positive and negative laws of the industrial structure evolution of the typical countries that span the middle income trap,as well as the stage standard for the evolution of industrial structure in developing countries.That is to say,the industrial proportion at the end o£industrialization and the service industry account for about 40%and 50%respectively.China's industrial structure evolution is basically in line with the law of industrial evolution,but the current proportion of industrial and service industries has basically reached the level of completion of industrialization in other countries.Therefore,China's future industrial restructuring is no longer the main pursuit of the expansion of the tertiary industry,but to accelerate the development of the real economy and promote the overall quality of the tertiary industry.