《大气污染防治行动计划》实施效果评估及其对我国人均预期寿命的影响

Effect of Implementation of the Action Plan on Prevention and Control of Air Pollution and Its Impact on Life Expectancy in China

2017年是我国实施《大气污染防治行动计划》(简称“《大气十条》”)的收官之年.为评估我国《大气十条》的环境效益,对中国环境监测总站提供的2013—2017年国家大气环境监测数据进行统计,分析可吸入颗粒物(PM 10)和细颗粒物(PM 2.5)质量浓度的变化情况,并利用疾病负担法定量分析《大气十条》实施对人均预期寿命的影响.结果表明:①《大气十条》自2013年实施以来,我国大气环境质量明显改善,2017年全国338个地级及以上城市的ρ(PM 10)较2013年下降了22.7%,74个重点城市的ρ(PM 2.5)从2013年的72.2μg m^3降至2017年的47.4μg m^3.②疾病负担法分析结果显示,《大气十条》实施后,大气污染导致的人体健康损失有所降低,城市地区因PM 10或PM 2.5污染导致的过早死亡人数从2013年的52.1×10^4人降至2017年的43.9×10^4人.③基于2013—2017年大气污染导致的过早死亡人数分析结果,利用城市居民简略寿命表得出,《大气十条》促使我国城市地区人均预期寿命有一定增加,2017年比2013年增加0.16 a.④从数据准确性、方法科学性和结果合理性等方面,对芝加哥大学得出我国《大气十条》实施的人均预期寿命2017年比2013年增加2.4 a的结论进行了分析,认为其结果高估了大气污染对人均预期寿命的影响,夸大了大气污染对人体健康的影响程度.研究显示,我国《大气十条》实施的环境效益显著,对人均预期寿命有一定的正向效益.

It is the last year for China to implement the Action Plan on Prevention and Control of Air Pollution in 2017.Through the implementation of a series policy measures,including Industrial Structure Adjustment,Clean Energy Utilization,Industrial Pollution Control,Boiler Retrofit and Treatment,Non-point Source Pollution Control,Motor Vehicle Pollution Control and Supervision Capacity Building,the Action Plan on Prevention and Control of Air Pollution has achieved its goals of environmental quality improvements as well as gaining human health benefits from 2013 to 2017.Based on the atmospheric environmental monitoring data of PM 10 and PM 2.5 from 2013 to 2017 provided by China National Environmental Monitoring Centre,adopting the Disease Burden Method,the impact of the Action Plan on Prevention and Control of Air Pollution on of life expectancy in China was quantitatively analyzed to provide scientific basis for the formulation of environmental policy in China.The major findings are:(1)Based on the analysis of environmental monitoring data,the air quality has improved significantly,and the concentration of PM 10 in 338 prefecture-level cities has dropped by 22.7%,and the concentration of PM 2.5 in 74 cities deceased from 72.2μg m^3 in 2013 to 47.4μg m^3 in 2017.(2)The results of Disease Burden analysis showed that the loss of human health caused by air pollution has declined significantly,the number of premature deaths in urban areas has dropped from 521,000 to 439,000 during 2013-2017.(3)Based on the analysis results of premature deaths caused by air pollution from 2013 to 2017,and using‘the Abridged life table of urban citizens’,the life expectancy of city in 2017 has increased 0.16 years compared with 2013 level.(4)The article also finds that the University of Chicago′s report on the increased life expectancy of 2.4 years in 2017 compared with 2013 level has overestimated the contribution of the Action Plan on Prevention and Control of Air Pollution on human health.Our analysis shows that the Action Plan on Prevention and Control of Air Pollution has significant environmental benefits and positive effects on life expectancy.