基于分位速度的城市突发事件交通影响等级划分方法

Classification Method of Traffic Impact Grade of Urban Traffic Emergency Based on Percentile Speed

城市交叉口是突发事件发生的集中区域,突发事件发生后容易引发区域性拥堵,交通管理部门难以直观地对突发事件采取相应的应急措施.建立一种定量的评价突发事件对交通影响等级的方法,对交通管理部门制定相应级别的应急措施有着重要的参考价值.本文基于水波学原理,利用交通影响系数概念,融合分位速度建立了交通影响等级阈值模型.利用样本数据建模得到交叉口附近车速与位置关系,并对速度与空间位置关系曲线,以及交叉口各方向流量比进行整合分析,得到交叉口的交通影响等级阈值.利用文献中的案例进行实例验证,结果表明,划分的等级与事故现场实际描述是一致的.研究结果可以为交通应急管理部门快速响应,采取合理有效的应急措施提供决策依据.

Urban intersection is a concentrated area for emergencies.It is easy to cause regional congestion after emergencies occur.it is difficult for the traffic management department to intuitively take corresponding emergency measures.Establishing a quantitative method to evaluate the grade of traffic impact of emergencies can provide important reference value for traffic management department to make emergency measures at corresponding levels.Based on the principle of water wave,this paper uses traffic impact coefficient to build the threshold model of traffic impact grade by fusing percentile speed.The relationship between speed and location is obtained by using sample data modeling.The threshold of traffic impact grade can be obtained through integrated analysis of relationship curve of speed and location and flow rate of intersection in each direction.Finally,the model is verified using the case in literature and the result shows the classification of traffic impact is in consistent with the actual description of the accident scene.Research results can provide decision-making basis for traffic emergency management departments to respond quickly and take reasonable and effective emergency measures.