防空体系作战能力评估方法

Research on Evaluation Method of Air Defense System-of-System Combat Capability

针对防空体系作战能力评估中不确定性指标难以量化的问题,将正态云模型与模糊推理相结合,提出一种基于正态云模糊推理的评估方法,依次通过模糊化,构造推理规则库,运用Larsen算法及中心平均解模糊算法实现定性与定量评估的有效转化。该方法综合考虑了指标信息的模糊性和随机性,有效提高了评估结果的可信度。最后,以典型防空体系侦察预警能力评估为例,验证了该方法的可用性与有效性。

According to the problem of quantifying the uncertain index in the evaluation of combat capability of air defense system-of-system,the paper combines the cloud model with fuzzy reasoning,and proposes a method of evaluation based on normal cloud fuzzy reasoning,which achieves the qualitative and quantitative transformation through fuzzification,construction of rule base,using Larsen algorithm and central average ambiguity-resolution algorithm.The method comprehensively considers the ambiguity and randomness of the index information,which effectively improves the credibility of the evaluation results.Finally,taking the evaluation of early warning capabilities of typical air defense systems as an example,the feasibility and effectiveness of the method are verified.