中国天然气供需形势分析及发展建议

China natural-gas supply and demand situations and some suggestions on its development

为了深入剖析中国天然气供需发展形势及面临的矛盾,为科学谋划中国天然气产业发展提供更多的客观形势分析与预判参考,通过开展国际天然气市场形势分析及国内供需发展历程、阶段、现状、趋势梳理总结分析,对中国天然气消费需求前景、天然气可获得量进行了情景预测,基于分析与判识提出相关发展建议。分析认为:(1)当前国际天然气市场格局发生深刻内涵变化,市场供需持续宽松,LNG贸易份额持续扩大,区域市场联动性增强,国际市场进一步有利于中国拓展天然气进口渠道、增加进口量以满足国内快速增长的需求;(2)现有情景下未来中国天然气可获得量不足,供需缺口将进一步扩大,当前全国性互联互通程度仍然较低,仍需加强天然气基础供应体系的互联互通与交易中心建设;(3)中国天然气产业当前正处于第三阶段的快速发展期,产业发展可塑性依然很强,应针对产业发展面临的一系列矛盾,强化顶层设计,超前布局天然气产业链发展。

In order to deeply probe the development situation of China natural-gas supply and demand and their contradictions, and provide more objective reference for scientific making the development plan of domestic naturalgas industry, the situation of global markets was analyzed, and the development history, stage, status, and trend of domestic gas supply and demand were summarized. Furthermore, the scenario prediction was carried out on domestic gas consumption and demand outlook, and availability. In addition, some relevant suggestions were made. Results show that(1) at present, the framework of global natural-gas markets is undergoing great changes, such as the market supply and demand keeping loose, the LNG trade share continuous enlarging, and the interaction among regional markets enhancing, the global markets further favorable for the development of gas import channel and the increase of import volume in China so as to meet a fast increasing of gas demand;(2) under these current situations, future gas availability in China will be not enough, the supply and demand gap will get larger, and its’ necessary to strengthen the interconnection among basic gas supply systems and the construction of trading center due to lower degree of national interconnection;and(3) domestic gas industry is now in the third stage of fast development, and its development compliance is still very strong. And to deal with the contradictions existing in gas industrial development, it’s essential to enhance the top-level design and make the development plan of gas industrial chain in advance.