长三角区域一体化下物流发展与区域经济增长的动态关系研究

Research on the Dynamic Relationship between Logistic Development and Regional Economy under the Regional Integration of the Yangtze River Delta

物流作为服务经济发展重要组成部分,对区域经济增长起到巨大推动作用,同样,区域经济在一定程度上也加快物流水平的提升与发展。物流发展与区域经济增长之间存在着依存、制约以及相互促进的动态关系,而这种动态关系也与物流发展和区域经济增长水平高低相关。该文基于VAR模型运用格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应以及方差分解方法,选取长三角区域为研究对象,通过对该区域2001-2018年的样本数据进行分析,探讨物流发展与区域经济增长的互动关系。研究结果表明:长三角区域的区域经济增长促进了物流发展,但由于物流产业体系不完善,物流发展对区域经济增长没有明显促进作用,因此未来长三角区域需要加快物流产业的转型升级发展,通过物流发展进一步推动区域经济增长。

As an important part of service economy development, logistics plays a tremendous role in promoting regional economic growth, which in turn accelerates the development of logistic levels to a certain extent. There is a dynamic relationship between logistic development and regional economic growth that depends on, restricts and promotes each other, which is closely related to the development levels in the two fields. Based on VAR model, Granger causality test, impulse response and variance decomposition method are used to select the Yangtze River Delta region as the research object. Through the analysis of the sample data of 2001-2018, the interaction between logistic development and regional economic growth is discussed. The research results show that the regional economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta region promotes the development of logistics. However, due to the imperfect logistic industry system, logistic development has no obvious promotion effect on regional economic growth. Therefore, the Yangtze River Delta region needs to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the logistic industry in the future in order to promote regional economic growth through logistic development.