西安市公路运输货运枢纽需求预测

Research on Demand Forecast of Xi’an Highway Transportation and Freight Hub

根据西安市统计年鉴运用SPSS数据分析软件分析2003-2017年西安市GDP、人口等指标与全社会货运量之间的关系,选用关联度相对较好的人口指标作为自变量建立人口与社会货运量间的数学关系。利用一元线性回归法预测了特征年人口数量并预测社会货运量。根据西安市全社会货运量预测、公路货运量预测等指标,预测了2020年、2030年、2040年的公路货运枢纽站场作业量。

According to the statistical yearbook of Xi’an,using SPSS data analysis software to analyze the relationship between the GDP and population indicators of Xi’an and the total social freight volume in 2003-2017,and select the population index with relatively good correlation as the independent variable to establish the population and social freight volume.The mathematical relationship between.The one-dimensional linear regression method was used to predict the characteristic annual population and predict the social freight volume.According to the forecast of the whole society’s freight volume and the forecast of road freight volume,the volume of road freight hub stations in 2020,2030 and 2040 is predicted.