气象服务与农产品期货关系探析

Analysis of Relationship Between Meteorological Services and Agricultural Products Futures

农产品期货是我国期货市场的重要部分。基于农业生产与气象条件的密切相关性,农产品期货价格与农作物产量、农产品期货交割等级与农作物气候品质关系密切;而农作物产量、农作物品质既与农产品期货价格高度相关、又与天气气候条件密切相关。基于上述关系,本文从气象服务在天气气候监测预报与作物产量预报、精细化农业气候区划与品质预评估2个方面探讨服务农产品期货市场的可能性,以期促进农产品流通和农业生产的发展。

Agricultural product futures is an important part of China′s futures market.Based on the close correlation between agricultural production and meteorological conditions,agricultural product futures prices are closely related to crop yield,agricultural product futures delivery grade and crop climate quality;while crop yield and crop quality are highly correlated with agricultural product futures prices and closely related to weather and climate conditions.Based on the above relationship,this paper explored the possibility of serving agricultural products futures market from the aspects of weather and climate monitoring and forecasting,crop yield forecasting,refined agroclimatic zoning and quality pre-evaluation,with a view to promoting the development of agricultural products circulation and agricultural production.