基于GM(1,N)的道路交通事故预测模型

Forecast Model for Road Traffic Accidents Based on GM(1,N) Model

以道路交通事故死亡人数为指标,建立基于灰色关联分析方法的GM(1,N)预测模型,与不同维数预测模型进行对比。结果表明:GM(1,5)预测模型精度较高,平均相对误差仅为6.38%,与GM(1,8)模型相比预测精度提高了21.29%。GM(1,N)预测模型可为相关学者研究道路交通事故提供一定的理论支撑,对提高道路交通管理水平具有重要的现实意义。

A GM(1,N)prediction model based on grey correlation analysis was established by taking the number of road traffic fatalities as an index.It was compared with different dimensions.The results show that the accuracy of GM(1,5)prediction model is relatively high,and the average relative error of the model is only 6.38%.Compared with GM(1,8)model,the prediction accuracy of GM(1,5)is improved by 21.29%.GM(1,N)prediction model provides a theoretical support for the study of road traffic accidents,and it has a practical significance to improve the level of road traffic management.