2019年11月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, November 2019

目的评估2019年11月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果预计11月突发公共卫生事件的报告数将较10月继续上升,但规模可能低于前3年11月的平均水平。可能以水痘、流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、其他感染性腹泻病及手足口病等事件为主。流行性感冒将出现季节性升高,诺如病毒引发的感染性腹泻病疫情将继续升高。11月进入冬季采暖季节,非职业性一氧化碳中毒事件将进入高发时期。结论需要对非职业性一氧化碳中毒予以重点关注,对季节性流感、诺如病毒感染性腹泻予以一般关注。

Objective To assess the risks of public health emergencies,both the indigenous ones and the imported ones,which might occur in the mainland of China in November 2019.Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.Results It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies,which might be the epidemics of varicella,seasonal influenza,mumps,other infectious diarrhea and hand foot and mouth disease,would be higher in November than in October 2019,but it might be lower than the average of same month in previous three years.There would be a seasonal increase of the incidence of influenza,and the incidence of infectious diarrhea caused by norovirus would continue to increase.In November,the incidence of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning would increase due to heating as the approaching of winter.Conclusion Close attention should be paid to the incidence of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning,and general attention should be paid to the public health risks of seasonal influenza and infectious diarrhea caused by norovirus.