“租购同权”对住房市场的影响与政策改进——基于改进“四象限模型”的理论分析

The Influence of “Encouraging Rental-Sales Right Equality” On The Real Estate Market and Policy Improvement: An Theoretical Analysis Based on the Improved “Four-quadrant Model”

"租购同权"的政策构建需要充分估计其对住房市场的影响。基于我国市场特征,从存量房漏出和供给弹性两方面对四象限模型加以改进,通过对比改进前后"租购同权"影响差异,分析完善思路并提出建议。研究表明,"租购同权"在原模型下更易引起"量价齐升",新模型下则更可能出现"量升更少、价涨更多"的不乐观影响。应将"量升价稳"作为政策目标,以增加租赁房源供给为中心,从降低空置率和提高土地一级市场的市场化水平两方面发力,着力提升城市基本公共服务水平。

The construction of the policy Encouraging Rental-sales Right Equality needs to fully estimate its impact on the real estate market. Based on the characteristics of China’s market, the four-quadrant model is improved in the leakage of existing houses and the supply elasticity. By comparing differences in the influence of the policy before and after the improvement of the model, suggestions are presented for further development. The analysis shows that, Compared with the result of "rising of both quantity and price" from the original model, a not optimistic result of "less quantity rise, more price rise" is more likely to be produced in the new model thus, We should take "quantitative increase and price stability" as the policy objective, put the work to increase the supply of rental housing in the center, make efforts to reduce vacancy rate and improve the marketization of primary land market, and focus on improving the basic public service level in city.