中国区域协调发展水平测度——基于省级数据分析

Measurement of Regional Coordinated Development Level in China:An Analysis Based on Provincial Data

从基本公共服务均等化程度、基础设施通达程度和人民基本生活保障水平三个角度,构建测算区域协调发展水平指标体系,利用层次分析法和效用函数合成法分别测算一级指标权重,并用熵权法测算二级指标权重,对中国四大板块及31个省市自治区2008-2017年区域协调发展水平的变化进行研究,同时分别以四大板块及省级区域数据为标准对全国层面数据进行测算,结果表明:东部地区区域协调发展水平最高,之后依次是东北、中部和西部;除东北地区呈下降趋势外,其他三个地区均有所上升。在31个省市区中,东部地区省份的区域协调发展水平整体高于中西部,各省份之间的区域协调发展水平差距较大;除上海、北京、天津以及辽宁、吉林、黑龙江三省呈下降趋势外,其他省份均有所增加。在全国层面,区域协调发展水平虽然呈上升趋势但变化幅度不大。在问题区域中,落后地区的短板在于教育和医疗,膨胀区域的问题在于人口过多集聚导致效用降低,衰退区域的缺陷在于多数指标呈下降趋势。因此,落后地区应优先加大教育与医疗投入,膨胀区域既要加快各项指标间的均衡发展又要适当控制人口和经济活动集聚,衰退区域发展重点在于激发经济社会活力。

This paper constructs an index system to measure the level of regional coordinated development from three aspects: the equal access to basic public services,the accessibility of infrastructure and basic living standards. By using analytic hierarchy process and utility function synthesis to calculate the weight of primary index and entropy method to calculate the weight of secondary index,this paper studies the changes of regional coordinated development level from 2008 to 2017 in four major plates and 31 provinces of China. The results show that the level of regional coordinated development in the eastern region is the highest,followed by the northeast,central and western regions. Among the 31 provinces and cities,the level of regional coordinated development in the eastern provinces is higher than that in the central and western provinces,and there is a large gap in the level of regional coordinated development among the provinces. At the national level,although the level of regional coordinated development shows an upward trend,it has not changed much. As for the problematic regions,the deficiency of the underdeveloped regions lies in education and health care,the problem of the congested regions is the reduction of utility caused by overpopulation,and the defect of the depressed regions is that most of the indicators show a downward trend. Therefore,the underdeveloped regions should give priority to investment in education and health care;the congested regions should not only speed up the balanced development of various indicators,but also properly control the agglomeration of population and economic activities;and the developing focus of depressed regions is to stimulate economic and social vitality.