我国真实城市化水平测度及国际比较

Measurement and International Comparison of China’s Real Urbanization Level

我国以常住人口统计的城镇化率明显高估了城市化水平,因为其中包含了2亿多被统计为城镇常住人口但并没有城镇户籍的农民工及其家属;而我国以户籍人口统计的城镇化率则低估了城市化水平,因为2亿多非城镇户籍的城镇常住人口在一定程度上已经享受了城市的基础设施和公共服务。本文以城镇户籍人口作为参照系,通过分别测算非户籍常住人口就业、居住、社会保障、子女教育和公民权利的市民化程度并赋予一定权重,得出市民化程度系数,然后乘以全国非户籍城镇常住人口,将其折算为一定数量的城镇户籍人口,再将经过折算的非户籍城镇常住人口与城镇户籍人口相加,除以全国总人口,从而得出介于上述两个城镇化率之间的更能反映我国真实城市化水平的城市化率,然后以同样的方法再将居住在2万多个建制镇中的3亿"镇民"折算为"市民",对前述真实城市化率进行进一步修正。通过国际比较发现,相对于我国目前的经济发展水平,真实城市化率有待大幅提高。

China’s urbanization rate based on resident population statistics significantly overestimates the urbanization level,because it contains more than 200 million migrant workers and their families who are counted as permanent residents of urban areas but do not have urban household registration.The urbanization rate based on household registered population statistics underestimates the urbanization level,because more than 200 million non-urban registered residents have already enjoyed the city’s infrastructure and public services to a certain extent.This paper takes the urban registered population as the reference system,and estimates the coefficient of citizenization level based on the following factors of non-urban registered permanent residents:employment,residence,social security,children’s education and civil rights.Then we multiply the coefficient of citizenization level with the total non-urban registered permanent resident population.The non-urban registered permanent resident population is converted into a certain number of urban registered population,and then the converted non-urban registered permanent population is added to the urban registered population,divided by the total population of China's Mainland,resulting in the urbanization rate,which is between the above two urbanization rates and more reflective of China’s real urbanization level.Then,in the same way,further corrections to the aforementioned real urbanization rate are made by converting the 300 million"towners"who live in more than 20000 towns into"citizens".By international comparison,it is found that the real urbanization rate needs to be greatly improved compared with China’s current economic development level.