管理者能力与分析师乐观性偏差

Managerial Ability and Analyst Optimism Bias

本文选取2007—2017年沪深上市公司数据,考察了管理者能力对分析师乐观性偏差的影响并挖掘其影响机理。实证研究表明,管理者能力提高有利于降低分析师乐观性偏差,通过工具变量法等方法控制内生性问题后,研究结论依然稳健;通过中介效应模型检验管理者能力影响分析师乐观性偏差的内在机理,验证了管理者能力通过提高信息披露质量和降低盈余波动性抑制分析师的乐观倾向,进而降低分析师乐观性偏差。进一步分析表明,管理层权力和机构投资者关注在一定程度上抑制了管理层能力的发挥。

Based on the data of Shanghai and Shenzhen listed companies from 2007 to 2017,this paper examines the influence of managerial competence on analyst optimism bias and explores its influencing mechanism.Empirical research shows that the improvement of managerial competence helps to reduce analysts'optimism bias.After controlling endogenous problems by means of instrumental variable method,the research conclusion is still robust.This paper examines the intrinsic mechanism of managerial competence affecting analysts'optimism bias through the mediation effect model,and verifies that managerial competence can restrain analysts'optimism bias by improving the quality of information disclosure and reducing earnings volatility,thereby reducing analystsr optimism bias.Further analysis shows that managerial power and institutional investors'attention inhibit the development of managerial competence to a certain extent.This paper enriches the literature on the economic consequences of managerial competence and the predictive behavior of analysts,and provides enlightenment for improving the information efficiency of capital market.