基于模糊综合评价法的河南省中原城市群水资源承载力评价研究

Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity of Central Plains Urban Agglomeration in Henan Province Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

为了深度了解河南省中原城市群水资源承载力水平,改进了现有评价指标分级不够具体和赋权结果不够合理的不足,构建了合适的水资源承载力评价指标体系,采用层次分析法和熵权法相结合的综合赋权法对评价指标赋权,构建模糊综合评价模型,综合评价分析2015年河南省中原城市群水资源承载力水平。结果显示:2015年河南省中原城市群水资源承载力状况总体较好,10个地市都处于可承载状态。从各子系统来看,水资源子系统总体状况最差,各项评价指标评分普遍较低,社会子系统、经济子系统和生态子系统总体状况较好,其中经济子系统对河南省中原城市群水资源承载力的贡献度最高。未来河南省中原城市群应合理控制人口,深化产业结构调整,合理规划水资源开发及利用。

In order to deeply understand the water resources carrying capacity level of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration in Henan Province,this paper improved the problem that the existing evaluation index classification is not specific enough and the result of index weighting is not reasonable enough,constructed the suitable water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system,used the comprehensive weighting method combining analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and entropy weight method to weigh the evaluation indexes,and constructed a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to comprehensively evaluate and analyze the water resources carrying capacity level of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration in Henan Province in 2015.The results showed that the water resources carrying capacity of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration in Henan Province was generally good in 2015,and all 10 cities were in a load-bearing state;from the point of view of each subsystem,the overall situation of water resources subsystem was the worst,the scores of evaluation indexes were generally low,and the overall situation of social subsystem,economic subsystem and ecological subsystem was good,among which the economic subsystem contributed the most to the water resources carrying capacity of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration in Henan Province.In the future,the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration in Henan Province should reasonably control population,deepen industrial restructuring,and rationally plan the development and utilization of water resources.