技术创新与城市经济增长波动——基于我国15个副省级城市面板数据的实证研究

Technological Innovation and Fluctuation of Urban Economic Growth ——An Empirical Study Based on Panel Data of 15 Vice-provincial Cities in China

本文以熊彼特增长理论和经济周期理论为指导,以我国15个副省级城市2000~2017年的面板数据构建变截距模型和控制地区因素的变系数模型,实证了城市技术创新对城市经济增长波动的影响,并分析其内在作用机制。结果显示,城市技术创新的波动与城市经济增长波动之间存在稳定的负向关系,表明技术创新对城市经济增长波动具有熨平效应。这种效应通过市场机制发挥作用,由城市经济结构决定,预示着持续的技术创新是获得城市稳定经济增长的关键,调整优化经济结构是获得创新能力的有效途径。

This paper aims to explore the impact of technological innovation on the fluctuation of urban economic growth in China.Guided by the Schumpeterian Growth Theory and the Business Cycle Theory,this paper constructs a variable intercept model and a variable coefficient model to control regional factors based on panel data of fifteen sub-provincial cities in China from 2000 to 2017.It demonstrates the impact of urban technological innovation on the fluctuation of urban economic growth,and analyses its internal mechanism.The results show that there is a stable negative relationship between the fluctuation of urban technological innovation and the fluctuation of urban economic growth,which indicates that technological innovation has an ironing effect on the fluctuation of urban economic growth.This effect is determined by the urban economic structure and works through the market mechanism.It also indicates that sustained technological innovation is the key factor to achieve stable economic growth in cities,and adjusting and optimizing economic structure is an effective way to achieve innovation capability.