中国“稳增长”与结构化去杠杆双目标——基于拉姆塞模型的理论分析

Steady Growth and Structured Deleverage Dual Targets of China ——A Theoretical Study Based on the Ramsey Model with the Debt Factor

本文基于一个加入了债务因素的拉姆塞模型,考察了目前我国面临的"稳增长"与结构化去杠杆之间的政策困境。本文的理论分析发现,在预算软约束和隐性担保的情况下,国字号企业的债务扩张倾向和政府对于债务问题的被动应对会使得经济陷入难以兼顾"稳增长"和"去杠杆"的两难困境中。摆脱这一困境的思路,短期内可以采用减税政策和去杠杆操作进行配合,长期内则需要政府着力统筹确立借债和偿债两个阶段的制度安排,做到国字号企业借债和偿债并重。

Based on a Ramsey model with the debt factor,this paper examines the policy dilemma between maintaining steady growth and processing the structured deleverage,which China is currently facing.The theoretical analysis of this paper finds that in the case of the soft budget constraint and implicit guarantee,the debt expansion tendency of state-owned enterprises and the government’s passive response to debt problems will make the economy fall into a dilemma that is difficult to balance"steady growth"and"deleverage".Regarding the difficult situation,in the short run,we can adopt the tax reduction policy together with the deleveraging.In the long run,the government needs to focus on establishing the institutional arrangement for the two stages of borrowing and repayment of the debt,so that state-owned enterprises can value the two stages the same.