战略性新兴产业与传统产业耦合发展及对就业的影响研究

Coupling Development of Strategic Emerging Industries and Traditional Industries,Also Its Impact on Employment

战略性新兴产业与传统产业耦合发展对我国经济的可持续发展与带动就业有着重要的意义。本文通过对战略性新兴产业与传统产业进行界定,以2011~2017年两类产业的49个行业数据为样本,利用主成分分析法对我国战略性新兴产业和传统产业的耦合度和耦合协调度进行了测度,然后利用面板数据回归方法实证分析两类产业发展对就业的影响效应,结果发现:(1)近年来,战略性新兴产业和传统产业发展的良性互动关系虽然在个别年份出现下降,但整体上存在一个上升的趋势,现阶段全国整体上两类产业处于中度协调阶段,且处于中度协调向高度协调阶段的跨越阶段;(2)传统产业中规模以上企业数量对劳动力就业有着正效应,且影响作用最大。传统产业的R&D经费内部支出对劳动力就业也有着正效应,城镇从业人员平均工资的就业效应是负的;(3)战略性新兴产业的产品销售收入的就业效应是正的,而工资的就业效应是负的。

The transformation and upgrading of industrial structure is of great significance to the sustainable development of China’s economy and employment promotion.By defining strategic emerging industries and traditional industries,and using data from 49 industries from 2011 to 2017 as a sample,the coupling degree and coordination degree of strategic emerging industries and traditional industries in China are measured by using the principal component analysis method.Then,using the panel data regression method to analyze the model of the employment effects of the two types of industrial development.It is found that in recent years,the positive interaction between the development of strategic emerging industries and traditional industries has declined in individual years.However,there is a rising trend in the whole country.At present,the two industries are in the stage of moderate coordination and are in the stage of transition from moderate coordination to high coordination.The number of enterprises above designated size in traditional industries has positive effect on the employment of labor force and has the biggest effect.The internal expenditure of R&D funds also has a positive effect on the employment of the labor force.The employment effect of the average wage of urban employees is negative.The employment effect of product sales income in strategic emerging industries is positive,while the employment effect of wages is negative.Finally,some suggestions are put forward according to the conclusions of this paper.