农业政策变化对粮食高质量产出影响的再讨论——基于Nerlove动态分析模型

Re-discussion of Agricultural Policies Changes on High-quality Output Effect of Grain——Based on Nerlove Dynamic Analysis Model

推进粮食生产高质量发展关键时期,农业政策可持续性及实施效果是否达到理论预期存在争议。为研究农业政策实施效果,基于1995~2016年省级面板数据,运用Nerlove适应性预期理论构建粮食播种面积和单产动态分析模型,利用动态面板GMM方法分析农业政策对水稻、小麦、玉米作物播种面积和单产的长期影响效果及其调整能力。结果表明,农业政策对小麦、水稻、玉米播种面积、单位产量及总产量均有显著影响,但对粮食产量正向拉动效果正在减弱;拉动粮食产量增长关键因素是财政支农政策,且主要通过影响粮食播种面积促进粮食产量提升;水稻和玉米播种面积和单产调整能力不同程度下降。据此提出完善粮食市场体系、优化粮食种植结构等对策建议,以期实现粮食增产提效,促进粮食生产高质量发展。

In the critical period of promoting the high-quality development of grain,there was a controversy about the sustainability of agricultural policies and whether the implementation effect had reached the theoretical expectations.In order to study the effects of agricultural policy implementation,dynamic analysis models of grain sown area and yield were constructed by Nerlove's adaptive expectation theory,based on the provincial panel data from 1995 to 2016 and dynamic panel GMM method was used to explore the long-term effects of agricultural policy on rice,wheat and maize sown area and yield,and to analyze its adjustment ability.The results showed that:agricultural policy had significant effects on wheat,rice,maize sown area,unit yield and total yield,but the positive effect of agricultural policy on grain yield was weakening;the key factor to promote the growth of grain yield was fiscal policy,which mainly promoted grain yield by affecting grain sown area;while the sown area of rice and maize was weakening.The adjustment ability of yield per unit area had decreased to varying degrees.Accordingly,some countermeasures and suggestions were put forward,such as perfecting the grain market system and optimizing the grain planting structure,in order to increase grain production and efficiency and promote the high-quality development of grain.