地区代际流动对居民生育意愿的影响

Regional Intergenerational Mobility and Residents’ Fertility Willingness

基于中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS2014)和中国综合社会调查数据(CGSS2015)探究地区代际流动对生育意愿的影响,研究发现:(1)地区代际流动对居民生育意愿存在显著的倒U型影响,较高的地区代际流动有利于提高个体的生育意愿,但是过高的地区代际流动反而会抑制个体的生育意愿。(2)地区代际流动对居民生育意愿的倒U型影响也表现在区域和收入两个维度:在中西部地区是正向的,而在东部地区则是负向的;在中低收入群体是正向的,而在高收入群体则是负向的。(3)较高的地区代际流动通过降低教育投资成本和教育回报率分别起到提高和抑制居民生育意愿的作用。

Based on China’s family tracking survey data(CFPS2014)and China’s comprehensive social survey data(CGSS2015),the impact of regional intergenerational mobility on fertility intention has been studied.It is found that:(1)the regional intergenerational mobility has a significant inverted U-shaped impact on the residents’fertility intention,and the higher regional intergenerational mobility is conducive to improving the individual’s fertility intention,but the higher regional intergenerational mobility will inhibit the individual’s fertility intention.(2)The inverted U-shaped influence of regional intergenerational mobility on Residents’fertility intention is also reflected in the two dimensions of region and income,that is,it is positive in the central and western regions,and negative in the eastern regions;it is positive in the middle and low-income groups,and negative in the high-income groups.(3)Higher intergenerational mobility can improve and inhibit residents’fertility intention by reducing the cost of education investment and the rate of return on education.High intergenerational mobility not only provides opportunities for development,but also makes young people more eager to achieve their personal goals in a short period of time,generate a strong sense of competition,impetuosity and anxiety,and then reduce their fertility intention.