早稻“龙舟水”灾害保险气象理赔指数设计

Design of weather-based claiming index for early rice “Dragon Boat Rain” disaster insurance

利用广东省1960-2016年5-6月逐日降水量资料、1983-2016年全省及各市早稻产量资料、1994-2016年灾情资料等,首先应用数理统计方法,建立早稻产量与"龙舟水"期间(5月21日-6月20日)总降水量、降水量距平百分率与暴雨日数的相关关系;然后,采用个例分析法,建立"龙舟水"灾害对早稻产量影响评估模型,再利用评估模型对受"龙舟水"影响严重的2008年早稻单产减产率进行评估检验,其正确率超过75%。最后,确定"龙舟水"期间暴雨日数大于等于1 d且降水量距平百分率大于等于20%为早稻"龙舟水"灾害保险阈值,在此基础上,设计了"龙舟水"灾害保险气象理赔指数。

Based on daily precipitation data between May and June during 1960-2016, early rice yield data during 1983-2016 in the whole province and municipalities, and disaster data during 1994-2016 in Guangdong province, this paper presents a design method of weather-based claiming index for early rice"Dragon Boat Rain"disaster insurance. Firstly, statistical method is used to establish the relationships between early rice yield and the total precipitation, rainfall anomalous percentage and rainstorm days during the"dragon boat rain"period of21 May to 20 June in Guangdong. Secondly, using the case studies, the assessment model is established for effect of"Dragon Boat Rain"disaster on early rice yield, and tests are conducted for the reduction rate of per unit early rice yield affected severely by"dragon boat rain"in2008 with the assessment model. It is found that its accuracy exceeds 75%. Lastly, the thresholds of early rice"Dragon Boat Rain"disaster insurance are determined to be the rainstorm days greater than or equal to 1 d, and the rainfall anomalous percentage greater than or equal to20% during"dragon boat rain"period. Weather-based claiming index for early rice"dragon boat rain"disaster insurance are accordingly designed.