“一带一路”地区的生态承载力与绿色发展（英文）

Ecological Carrying Capacity and Green Development in the “Belt and Road” Initiative Region

20世纪70年代以来,全球性资源危机、环境污染和生态退化问题凸显,增长的极限始终是一个重要的理论与政策问题。承栽力评价、预警与调控在自然资源利用、环境管理和生态保护中都有巨大的应用潜力。本文梳理了承栽力演变历程及生态承载力的概念,将已有生态承栽力评价方法归纳为生态足迹法、综合指标体系法、生态系统服务法、净初级生产力人类占用分析法等4类。分析了当前生态承栽力研究中问题,并展望了未来发展趋势。结合“一带一路”地区的生态承栽力与绿色发展专辑,从生态承载力评价方法与应用、生态系统服务供给与消费、资源利用与环境变化等方面对“一带一路”地区的生态承栽力研究进展做了介绍。建议“一带一路”地区生态承栽力研究应深入刻画生态承载力的时空异质性及动态变化,模拟生态过程与人类活动的相互作用,将气候变化、人类活动及生态产品与服务流等因素纳入生态承载力评价体系与模型中,提高评价结果的精度和可靠性,提升生态承载力研究对相关决策的支撑能力。

Since the 1970s,resource crisis,environmental pollution and ecological degradation have become prominent globally,and the limits to growth have always been an important theoretical and policy issue.The technological system of early warning and regulation based on carrying capacity evaluation has great potential in natural resource utilization,environmental management and ecosystem conservation.In this paper,the evolution of carrying capacity research and the concept of ecological carrying capacity are summarized,and the existing evaluation methods of ecological carrying capacity are classified into ecological footprint method,comprehensive index system method,ecosystem service analysis method and human appropriation of net primary productivity method.The current problems in ecological carrying capacity study were analyzed and the trend was outlooked.Combined with the special issue,the recent proceeding of ecological carrying capacity study in the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)region was narrated,from the aspects of ecological carrying capacity evaluation method and application,the supply and consumption of ecosystem services,and the resources use and environment change.Some suggestions have been proposed to improve the accuracy and reliability of ecological carrying capacity evaluation:1)the spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamic change of ecological carrying capacity should be explored furtherly;2)the interaction between ecological process and human activities should be simulated;3)factors such as climate change,human activities and ecological products and ecological service flows should be integrated into the evaluation system of ecological carrying capacity.