城市群的经济增长效应测度与影响因素分析

Analysis on the Economic Growth Effect and Influencing Factors of Urban Agglomerations

作者基于2007-2016年我国14个国家级城市群涵盖的202个地级市面板数据,建立了动态面板模型,测度了城市群的经济增长效应并分析了主要影响因素。结果发现:(1)技术对于城市群的经济增长影响十分显著;区域发展差距缩小有利于城市群产生良好的经济增长效应;城市群集聚度的增强能够提高要素利用效率,促进区域协同发展。(2)拥有多核心城市的城市群经济增长动力更强,技术、集群度等因素对经济增长影响更为显著。(3)地理因素也会影响城市群经济的增长。南方地区城市群的经济增长动力更强,技术、集群度及人力资本对城市群增长的影响均比北方地区显著。基于空间角度利用门槛面板方法,作者又进一步探讨了城市群中心城市可达性对经济增长的影响机制。结果表明,城市群中心城市可达性越强,核心城市的辐射效应越强、增长动力越强。未来应该促进单核心、双核心城市群向多核心城市群转变,充分发挥核心城市的辐射带动作用;还应大力发展技术和交通,来进一步实现城市群的高质量增长。

Based on the data of 202 prefecture-level cities covered by 14 national urban agglomerations in China from 2007 to 2016,this paper establishes a dynamic panel model,measures the economic growth effect of urban agglomerations and analyzes the main influencing factors.The results show that:(1)The influence of technology on the economic growth of urban agglomeration is very significant,and narrowing the gap of regions is beneficial to exert good economic growth effects on urban agglomerations;enhancing the degree of agglomeration can improve the efficiency of utilization of factors and promote the coordination development of regions.(2)The economic growth motive force of urban agglomeration with multi-core cities is stronger,and the influence of technology,clustering degree and other factors on economic growth is more significant.(3)Geographical factors will also affect the economic growth of urban agglomeration.The economic growth power of urban agglomeration in southern area is stronger,and the influence of technology,clustering degree and human capital on the growth of urban agglomeration is more significant than that northern area.From the spatial point of view,this paper uses threshold panel method to further discusses the influence mechanism of the accessibility of the central cities of the urban agglomeration on the economic growth.The results show that the stronger the accessibility of the central city of the urban agglomeration is,the stronger the radiation effect of the core city is,and the more obvious the economic growth motive force is.In the future,the development of urban agglomeration should promote the transformation from single-core and dual-core urban agglomeration to multi-core urban agglomeration,and give full play to the radiation driving role of core cities.The government should also vigorously develop technology and transportation to further achieve high-quality growth of urban agglomerations.