碳排放分解:理论基础、路径剖析与选择评判

Decomposition of Carbon Emissions: Theoretical Basis, Path Analysis and Selection Evaluation

温室气体排放分解分析作为研究事物变化特征及其作用机理的一种分析框架,在环境经济研究中得到越来越多的应用。作者介绍了目前较为常用的几种分解方式,并对其进行比较。碳排放指数分解分析方法通常利用能源恒等式将碳排放量表示为几个因素指数的乘积,根据不同的权重确定方法进行分解,以明确各个指数的增量份额;这类方法适用于对含有较少因素的模型进行分解,并适合处理时间序列数据,进行跨国比较,主要包括Laspeyres类指数分解与Divisia类指数分解。其中,LMDIⅠ方法凭借无残差、易使用等优点得到了较为广泛的运用。结构分解分析方法则可进行更为系统的分析,能针对较多影响因素模型进行分解,解析各因素对排放量的影响,但这种方法对数据收集有较高的要求。结构分解分析方法与碳排放分解分析方法最大的区别在于前者基于投入产出系统,而后者则只需使用部门加总数据。

The decomposition of Carbon emissions which makes up the analytical framework for studying the changing characteristics of Carbon emissions,has been applied more and more in environmental economics research gradually.In this paper,several decomposition methods are introduced and compared.IDA(Index Decomposition Analysis)methods usually use energy identities to represent carbon emissions,and decompose them according to different weighting methods to determine the share of each factor.IDA methods are easier to decompose models with few factors,and more suitable for processing time series data and making cross-country comparisons,which include Laspeyres index decomposition and Divisia index decomposition.LMDIⅠmethod is widely used because of no residuals.SDA(Structural Decomposition Analysis)method can conduct more systematic analysis and decompose many factors from carbon emissions,but it has more requirements for data collection.The biggest difference between SDA method and IDA method is that the former is based on input-output system,while the latter only needs sectoral data.