人口老龄化对内蒙古社会保障财政支出的影响研究

Study on the Influence of Population Aging on Social Security Expenditure in Inner Mongolia

利用2007-2016年相关数据,分析内蒙古人口的老龄化问题发现,内蒙古人口随全国人口一起,共同进入了持续老龄化的状态,且表现为老年人口规模及其占总人口的比例增长快,老年人口规模大,老年负担系数大。本文通过PADIS-INT软件以及模型回归得出内蒙古老年人口抚养比每增加1%,社会保障财政支出水平增加0.47%。同时,预测得知,到2030年内蒙古老龄化水平高达31.04%,社会保障财政支出水平也随着老龄化水平的提高而增加,达到12.56。因此,在未来一个相当长的时期内,内蒙古人口的老龄化趋势将会持续下去,老龄化程度会进一步提高,对地方财政社会保障支出带来沉重的负担。要解决好内蒙古人口老龄化问题,首先应调整财政政策,以积极的财政政策化解深度人口老龄化进程中的社会压力与经济负担;其次统筹城乡社会保障体系,加快发展老龄事业。

Using data from 2007 to 2016 to analyze the aging of the population in Inner Mongolia,it was found that the population of Inner Mongolia,together with the population of the whole country,has entered a state of continuous aging,and it shows that the size of the elderly population and its proportion in the total population have grown rapidly,and the elderly population is large.The burden of old age is large.Through the software of PADIS-INT and the regression of the model,this paper finds that for every 1%increase in the old-age dependency ratio in Inner Mongolia,the level of social security fiscal expenditure increases by 0.47%.At the same time,the forecast is that the level of ageing in Inner Mongolia will reach 31.04%by 2030,and the level of public expenditure on social security will increase with the increase of the aging level,reaching 12.56.Therefore,the aging trend of Inner Mongolia’s population will continue for a long period of time to come,and the degree of aging will further increase,which will place a heavy burden on local financial and social security expenditures.In order to solve the problem of population aging in Inner Mongolia,we should first adjust the fiscal policy to resolve the social pressure and economic burden in the process of deep population aging.Secondly,we will coordinate the social security system in urban and rural areas and accelerate the development of undertakings for the elderly.