摘要
选取中兴通讯作为研究对象,以战略事件发生的频次为依据,将公司1999—2016年的战略活动构成一个时间序列,采用结构性断点检验的方法将战略活动的事件序列分为三个战略子阶段,对三个阶段分别建立自回归滑动平均模型(ARMA),并对每一阶段拟合模型的残差进行了深入分析,结果表明中兴通讯的战略态势呈现出随机性-稳定性-自组织性的演进规律。最后,分别对三个阶段的经营绩效进行了分析。
This paper chooses ZTE Corporation as the subject,encodes the strategic activity of the company from 1999 to 2016 into a timeseries based on the frequency of strategic events.It divides the timeseries into three strategic substages using the method of structural breakpoint detection and establishes auto-regressive and moving average model(ARMA).Moreover,it makes a deep analysis on the residuals of each subseries.The result shows that the strategic dynamics of ZTE Corporation presents evolution pattern of“randomness-stability-self-organization”.Finally,this paper studies the company′s financial performance of three stages and analyzed the company′s financial performance under different strategic situation.
作者
韩天舒
陈德智
HAN Tianshu;CHEN Dezhi(Antai College of Economics and Management,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200030,China)
出处
《上海管理科学》
2019年第6期73-78,共6页
Shanghai Management Science
关键词
战略动态
战略子阶段
自组织
经营绩效
strategic dynamics
strategic substages
self-organization
company′s performance
